We're the Conservatives
Why Gen Z has flocked towards Trump
We have all seen the numerous polls showing that young people have turned conservative. Unlike 2016 and 2020, the 18-29 demographic is at best evenly split between Democrats and Republicans and in some polls on net approves of Trump.
This is scary. For decades the conventional wisdom has been that young people tend to be liberal. They then grow more conservative as they age. Explanations of this phenomenon vary, with some believing that it relates to young people not paying taxes, them being more empathetic, or just college being a liberal vibe. Regardless, if we see a shift now, then the Democrats may be at a large disadvantage.
Naturally, many have flocked to blaming social media. Tiktok has enabled figures such as Andrew Tate to influence young men, the YouTube algorithm often locks people into a right-wing bubble, and Elon’s Twitter isn’t doing too much to help either.
But something else is also off. Not only have young people become more accepting of Trump, but those over the age of 60 have moved away from him. Trump’s worst net approval rating in a January poll by Emerson is in the 70+ category.
I offer you an alternative explanation: there has been no shift. Young people were never necessarily Democrats and old people were never necessarily Republicans. No. Young people tend to be rebellious and radical. They want to break apart the system and build it anew. They want large-scale changes on a short timeline. Old people on the other hand tend to be skeptical of change. This dichotomy has often been construed as “liberal” versus “conservative”, but it need not be so. Yes, it is true that older people’s political intuitions tend to be conservative, but this conservatism is defined by what it’s conserving. For the past few decades, people were “conserving” old rules regarding abortion, marriage, and divorce. Not anymore. Trump and Elon couldn't care less about whether Obergefell gets overturned. But this administration does represent a huge middle finger to existing American institutions. On January 6, Trump attempted to prevent the certification of the 2020 election. Today DOGE promises to upend the bureaucratic state. Those on the other side of the aisle have been fighting to preserve democracy and existing political institutions.
Think about it. Right now Trump symbolizes change. Our side symbolizes an attempt to prevent these massive changes and save the existing set of political procedures in the United States. Trump is driving history. You and I, dear reader, are, as Buckley would put it, “standing athwart history, yelling Stop, at a time when no one is inclined to do so”. It is only natural that the “conservative” old people have turned towards us, while the more “radical” youth has turned against us.
Support for liberalism has become conservative. We have become the conservatives.
Your post is interesting and the one data set that youn use to support your conclusion is suggestive but as you are aware as a Chicago graduate far from conclusive. My explanations for the inferences to be derived from this all would be somewhat more nuanced and complex, perhaps in defiance of Occam's Razor.
My two questions for clarification are-
1) Who are the WE in the last sentence? and,
2) To which liberalism do you refer?
I would posit that conservatives, at least those with libertarian impulses, have always been classical liberals, and what is viewed as mainstream liberalism today borders on authoritarianism and deference to and in many instances even active support for the state
BTW - best of luck to all Georgians in your incredibly difficult struggle for liberty.