Overwhelmed by the speed of the news cycle, I have decided to give up on writing a piece on any single issue that has taken place over the last two weeks. Instead I will offer you 20 theses on US politics.
There is no good solution to Israel-Palestine. US presence in Gaza is a terrible solution. Regardless of how much you (dis)like Israel, they are powerful enough to not require this level of American support. Sending troops to Gaza will just increase hate for the United States and bog the US down at a time when Taiwan and Ukraine require our full attention. Fortunately, markets think Trump is lying.
Trade deficits are not a problem. You are exchanging dollars for goods. You have a trade deficit with the supermarket, but that does not mean that you’re “subsidizing” them as Trump believes.
Tariffs almost always harm the economy. Sometimes they can be justified on national security grounds. Tariffs on close allies are foolish.
USAID spent money on lots of stupid goals. But you can look to who has rejoiced its pause to understand whether Musk’s behavior is beneficial to US interests.
There’s waste in the US government. The federal budget cannot be balanced by cutting waste. Balancing the budget will require cutting welfare. Trump is not prepared to cut welfare.
DOGE is unlikely to “dismantle the bureaucratic state”. Markets only expect <15 out of 441 agencies to be cut.
The Democrats need to get their shit together. If Elon can walk into a government building, then so can Democratic senators and congressmen. Projecting weakness is especially problematic when Trump is projecting this much strength.
Wokism has been crushed under the vibe shift. This has nothing to do with whether it was right or wrong. But it’s strategically unwise to focus on it now. Resistance to Trump will have to focus on tangible harm caused and not just insane Republican statements or physical gestures.
Trump is not mentally healthy. Most billionaires go insane. Most old people go insane. 78 year-old billionaires with zero self-reflection are all mentally unwell.
Elon is extremely intelligent. He’s also insecure and prone to insane positions. In other words, he’s a stupid smart person. Stupid smart people with power are dangerous.
Tulsi Gabbard is an unqualified Russian asset and generally an all-around idiot.
RFK Jr. is an idiot.
The US could probably “buy” Greenland by giving each citizen $1,000,000. They opposite it now, but six zeros and six zeros. Invading Greenland is idiotic beyond measure. The US can achieve all of its military aims without controlling the island.
The War in Ukraine did not end in 24 hours. It cannot end yet as there is no peace treaty that both Ukraine and Russia can commit to. There is no path to peace that does not include US aid.
Immigration is good for the economy. Immigrants do not lower wages. They raise the supply of labor, but they also raise the demand for labor.
Trump will have the opportunity to appoint the next Fed Chair. If he picks someone insane like Judy Shelton, they could do great damage. Bad monetary policy caused both the Great Depression and the Great Financial Crisis. Macroeconomics is unforgiving.
The US is spending 3.7% of GDP on the military in the most tumultuous geopolitical period of the last 30 years. This is the lowest since at least WW2. That is bad.
Trump is much worse than mainstream Republicans such as Marco Rubio. But mainstream Republicans are no longer mainstream in the Republican party. Things could get even worse after he leaves. Imagine Tucker Carlsen as POTUS.
We have been cursed to live in interesting times. Things can always get worse, but it’s never over.
*Tucker Carlson