In Praise of Gerontocracy

Why you should be glad the President is old

I

On March 5, 1953 Joseph Stalin made the second greatest humanitarian contribution of his life - he died.

After his death, the USSR went through a period of moderate liberalization under Khrushchev, who pursued a policy of “De-Stalinization”. During this period, the USSR became somewhat less abhorrent.

One can of course imagine an alternative history, where Stalin is born a few years later and comes into power younger. Perhaps his health suffers less and he lives until 1960 instead. The USSR could have been far worse for far longer.

II

In 1999, Russians were already preparing for the 2000 Presidential Elections. The top contender was Yevgeny Primakov. Primakov was a typical (successful) 70 year-old Soviet bureaucrat. He supported anti-Western policies and showed no signs of liberalization.

His main opponent was a younger man with a Doctorate in Economics who stressed the importance of transforming Russia into a more classical liberal society. He even wanted the country to join NATO.

After some internal conflict, Primakov eventually canceled his bid for the presidency and supported his rival, who you may now know as Vladimir Putin.

Soon enough, Putin destroyed all signs of democracy in Russia and started a personality cult.

One can of course imagine an alternative history, where Primakov becomes President in 2000 and does not establish a dictatorship. Simply because he’s too old to bother.

III

My primary argument here is that gerontocracy has a large upside - it reduces the odds of descending into (and remaining as) a dictatorship. This has two primary reasons:

(1) The gains to becoming a dictator are much smaller when you’re older. If you manage to become dictator at 50, then you can look forward to 30 years of your rule. Lovely. If you’re 75, then a 5-year period of absolute power is just “meh” in comparison. Old people are also generally more risk-averse and are less likely to want to risk going to prison. Again, lowering the odds that they will attempt to overthrow democracy.

(2) Personality cults often end when the dictator dies. Even if you do end up in a dictatorship, you would much rather have an old dictator than a young one. Stalin will soon die and make room for Khrushchev. But Putin is going to stay in power for a long, long time. If you are to have any hope of going back to a democracy, then you would much rather have an 80 year-old in charge, than a 60 year-old.

IV

Many Americans in 2024 (and 2020 for that matter) were upset that they had to choose between two extremely old candidates who would randomly start ranting about golf. But for those of you nervous about the odds of Trump attempting to run for a third term or pulling another January 6, this is a silver lining. He’s old. The man drinks a dozen diet cokes a day - he is not going to live to 100 like Jimmy Carter did. He is already showing signs of major cognitive decline and is unlikely to have the physical and mental ability to overthrow democracy in 4 years.

So be glad that your wannabe-authoritarian President is 78. Us Georgians are not so lucky, our guy is a full decade younger.